The Drums of War Rumble On
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The US continues in it’s attempt to refocus the Yemeni Government on Al Qaeda. Recently, Yemeni forces killed 50 civilians in an air attack on and Al Qaeda Compound. You might think, with the big diversion to Al Qaeda, the beleaguered Houthi rebels would get a break. But, no. The Houthi leadership declared a unilateral cease fire earlier this week, first with the Saudis, and then with the Yemeni Government. In response, the Yemeni army continues to bombard their villages as well as their troops. The Houthis have real complaints with the Yemeni Government which doesn’t show much generosity with any of the people of Yemen, but it has given nothing at all the the Houthis. Because the Houthis belong to a Shia sect, the Iranians had been blamed for helping them, and this was one of the reasons given for Saudi interest. However, there has been little evidence of any assistance coming to the Houthis from Iran. It is more likely the Saudis are using the Houthis to send a message to their own downtrodden Shia underclass.
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Here in America, the House of Representatives voted for a bill that would Sanction Iran by barring them from reimporting refined oil products by an overwhelming majority, something to 9. Enforcing this law would be devastating for the Iranian middle class. It would also be a crime according to international statutes that could considered an act of war. The US appears to be preparing for that outcome by building its forces in Gulf, again, this time fortified with anti-missile hardware. Inquiring minds want to know, is this really a defensive posture? Our friends in the West say yes. So, we’re in Iraq and Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen, and we’re building a force in the Persian Gulf. How do you figure the Iranians, and their neighbors see this?
Pakistan is still resisting US insistence that they continue razing new areas of the country in an effort to rout Taliban Leaders hiding in various provinces. Both Iran and Pakistan have asked once again to be admitted as full partners in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This would buy them the kind of umbrella NATO provides for member nations. Unfortunately for them, they are unlikely to succeed in their ambitions, specifically because they are under immediate threat. China and Russia would be fools to commit their successful international trade organization to the defense of countries with Western guns trained on their foreheads. On the other hand, they would prefer to have these countries in their sphere of influence, and would likely defend them if necessary to protect resources they need and the integrity of their own borders.
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We are in the midst of a major upgrade to our Afghan War with 30,000 additional men and more drones to support them, but Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants international support for negotiations with the Taliban and a serious effort to bring them into the government. Karzai is a Pashtun like the Taliban and his brother rents Mullah Omar’s old compound the US Military. The don’t fear the Taliban. Karzai, who initially supported the Taliban, but later broke with them, contends that bringing in the Taliban is the only way to end the strife in his country. There is significant support for the argument that the Taliban are an indigenous organization with no particular interest in the international Al Qaeda groups, that they are largely composed of local men frustrated with the endless war and occupation. In this perspective, integration is an obvious choice.
The US, of course, opposes this option and has set preconditions the Taliban are unlikely to comply with for their participation in any talks. The Taliban were scheduled to come to the talks held in London last week, but US insistence on their acceptance of preconditions that are actually the points on the table for negotiation resulted in their not attending. Conciliation with the Taliban does not fit the US definition of success. And it certainly doesn’t meld with the current plan to either destroy them or buy them off. Perhaps that is why the Karzais’ corruption suddenly became a primary issue in the Afghan election. Both Karzai and the Taliban have approached the Shanghai Cooperation Organization for assistance. One can only guess what response they received. It’s a shame our leaders can’t live with win-win for Afghanistan.
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The Israeli leadership appears to be having a diplomatic meltdown. Their actions bespeak serious paranoia and delusions of grandeur. A few weeks ago, Avigdor Lieberman decided to avenge himself on the Turks for a TV show that portrayed Israeli violence towards Palestinian children. He had the Israeli liason invite his Turkish counterpart for a meeting in his office. When he arrived, he was made to wait a long time in the hall. On entering, he was seated on a low couch across from the Israelis who were in high chairs, with an Israeli flag on the table between them, but not a Turkish one. I wonder if they also drank tea without offering him any? This was the plan of the Foreign Minister of Israel! This is his idea of Diplomacy.
Meanwhile, rumor has it the Israeli government is said to be planning another ‘war’ on Gaza. I’m having trouble visualizing it. Will they go in and bomb and shell the people sitting in the rubble of their already destroyed homes? Will they fly their F16s and Apache helicopters around looking for buildings still standing to demolish? Egypt is closing off the tunnels in Rafah, currently used by the Palestinians to import those goods necessary to living ones life. With those closed, the people will draw closer to starvation, and lose what little access they have to cooking oil and medical supplies and clothing. Why bother to bomb them? Maybe they do it to avoid the blow back from starving them. Maybe just for the fun of it. Who can imagine.
Netneyahu has made it clear that Israel holds all the cards and will not defer to and Palestinian rights if it doesn’t want to. Avigdor Lieberman told the Palestinians that if they don’t resume talks with Israel immediately, they would lose control of the West Bank. This is interesting because Hamas is indeed becoming more popular every day in the West Bank. Though the Fatah collaborators refuse to come to the table with Israel while settlement construction continues, their American and Israeli trained forces continue to imprison and torture Hamas members in the West Bank. He sees the writing on the wall. Apartheid is a fast track to the so called ‘one state solution’ where the Israelis will have to learn to live with the Palestinians or return to wherever they came from.
This week, Lieberman created his scandal du jour by engaging in a pissing match with Syria. After Barak said it important for Israel and Syria to pursue peace because otherwise, there might be war, Assad was quoted as saying that he didn’t think Israel is serious about wanting peace, but rather they seemed to be moving the region towards war. He went on to say that such a war would come home to Israel’s cities. Lieberman then threatened Syria saying that in the case of a war, Israel would not only beat Syria, but they would also depose the Assads.
All the same, some sources report that Israeli people feel more secure this year than they have in some time.
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