The Fragmenting of Empire
The London Times online headline says Israel Stations Nuclear Missile Subs off Iran. The article says that the subs have already spent time in the region, but a “decision has now been taken to insure the presence of at least one of the subs.” The New York Times headline says U.N. Says Iran Has Fuel for Two Nuclear Weapons. They go on to say that “Iran has now produced a stockpile of nuclear fuel that experts say would be enough, with further enrichment, to build 2 nuclear bombs. ” What does that mean? Iran has had the same amount of nuclear materials from the start. It has taken them 10 years to enrich it to to 3%. To be used in a bomb, it has to be enriched to 95%. With relation to Iran, The NY Times is constantly trying to find a way to make newsworthy the absence of news.
But, there is some real news and the world press is reporting it:
The Nuclear Arms Conference in NY ended with a whimper. They were unable to reconcile their view that a Nuclear Free Middle East is imperative with the US support for Israel’s nuclear arms, and Israel’s rejection of the NPT. Attempts to direct the conference to censure Iran were blunted by the glaring inequity of nuclear armed Israel, Pakistan and India, all non-signatories of the NPT, surrounding the region with Nukes. US support for these nations makes it impossible to apply the necessary pressure to bring them into the fold. It would be nice to see Obama spearhead such an effort. That would mean something.
The US was just in the process of blowing off a first step towards normalizing relations with Iran made by Turkey and Brazil, and try to ram new sanctions through an unenthusiastic Security Council when Israel saved the day by attacking civilian ships on the high sea, and alienating the entire world. The US might have preserved some credibility if only Israel’s security and happiness didn’t trump common sense, the welfare of US citizens not on US soil and loyalty to any and all other allies. Now it’s going to be pretty tough to pull off. Some of the current members of the Security Council just lost their incentive to play ball. In fact, countries like Turkey and Ireland are mad as hell and they aren’t going to take it any more.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has recently completed a formal process for new members to join the group. This is good news to the 6 or 7 countries who currently have ‘observer’ status, but are contemplating the advantages of membership. In particular, Pakistan and India appear to be ready to go for it. The Pakistan Daily had the headline Pakistan a natural ally of SCO, Says China last week. They are flattered and hopeful. It’s no surprise to any sane person that the new civilian government in Pakistan is looking for a new patron. Let’s face it, they have made a deal with the devil, economic support in return for the destruction of the integrity of the state, and it’s starting to take a serious toll. They are quite ready to try a different club.
India is a more interesting situation. They have options. The West has been very supportive towards them, and they have some border tensions with China. At one point they were thinking about joining NATO. AHN, All Headline News from New Delhi says “”SCO Likely to Induct India Pakistan“. They say that India now sees that the organization provides for regional security beyond what individual nations can achieve. Given their location, it doesn’t make a lot of sense, but what this is really about is choosing sides in an emerging cold war that is already emitting some heat, and has the potential to get very hot. A regional alliance might look the right move under the circumstances.
In another nascent regional alliance, Georgia, a US client state on the Russian border, has, as I mentioned in the previous post, just decided to throw in it’s lot with Iran. Iran, unfortunately, is still not in a position to be admitted to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. For a couple of years, Russia was supporting Iran’s entry to the group, but China took a more cautions stance in light of the stresses around Iran, and vetoed their application. Following some recent diplomatic tensions, Russian President Medvedev said that a country under Security Council Sanctions would not be eligible for membership in the group.
This is not to say that Iran isn’t a critical resource for both China and Russia, as well as a close neighbor of Russia. The fact that they don’t want to openly support Iran when it is under attack from a large and volatile consortium led by their primary adversary doesn’t mean that they won’t protect their interests there if necessary. Their instinct is to keep the stakes as low as possible. But anyone who thinks they can physically attack Iran without serious consequences beyond what Iran alone can muster, is making a big mistake.
And, finally, just a mention. Hamid Karzai’s Jurgha has decided to negotiate with the Taliban. Moreover, Afghanistan is also on the short list of countries pursuing SCO membership. What does that mean in the context of US plans for a massive incursion into Qandhar. It doesn’t make much sense to waste all those lives and resources in this context. So, why are we doing it?